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To effectively analyze the situation of meteorological disasters and reduce the risk of geological disasters, based on recent geological disaster data in Jilin region, analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the region. At the same time, based on the analysis of the relationship between the disaster causing factors in the study area, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to construct a meteorological warning and prediction model for geological disasters in the study area, achieving early warning of geological disasters in the area. After analysis, regional rainfall, human activities, and weathering thickness are one of the main factors causing geological disasters. In the analysis of disaster prediction with higher rainfall, when the rainfall is 200mm, the research model, comprehensive index method, and fuzzy mathematics method have 321, 185, and 177 disaster numbers, respectively. The research model is more realistic in 310 cases, indicating higher prediction accuracy. Further analysis of the disaster situation in the study area reveals that regions 2 and 6 have a higher landslide risk, with both regions predicting over 20 landslides. Therefore, geological risk management is necessary. The research content will provide effective disaster assessment and early warning for areas with frequent geological disasters.