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A landing point range prediction model based on monte carlo method is established for determining the specific range of the danger zone. First, the possible effect of the separation point information error on landing point is analyzed , then the effect of propellant、moving base、guidance system、separating force、upper wind and uncertainty of wreckage state to separation point information or motor process of wreckage was also ascertained. Using direct simulation method, a monomial monte carlo landing point range prediction is made on the base of typical example. After confirming the modality、extend and probability distribution of the above factors, comprehensive analysis is studied. According to different situations that the task unit would have barged up against, monte carlo landing point range prediction is divide into two parts, one is based on true information of separation point, another is based on predicting information of separation point. Six monomial monte carlo landing point range predictions is used in the two parts above, and graphic expressions is given.