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基于IBAS-BP算法的熱電廠(chǎng) 負荷預測及工程應用
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(51678470)


Load Prediction and Engineering Application of Thermal Power Plant Based on IBAS-BP Algorithm
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    摘要:

    針對熱電廠(chǎng)負荷隨機性強、預測精度差、計算時(shí)間長(cháng)等問(wèn)題,提出一種結合改進(jìn)天牛須搜索算法IBAS和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )的組合預測方法。模型以熱電廠(chǎng)的歷史有功負荷、季節、日期類(lèi)型和氣象數據為輸入因子,通過(guò)引入精英策略,將單個(gè)天牛尋優(yōu)擴充為群體尋優(yōu),同時(shí)改進(jìn)天牛搜索步長(cháng),使BP參數在IBAS搜索范圍內有效尋優(yōu),從而優(yōu)化BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )的權值,增強其搜索和尋優(yōu)能力,提高預測網(wǎng)絡(luò )的性能和精度。采用4個(gè)標準測試函數,將改進(jìn)模型與標準天牛須算法對比。引入均方根誤差RMSE、平均絕對百分比誤差MAPE精度評價(jià)指標對PSO-BP網(wǎng)絡(luò )、BAS-BP模型、IBAS-BP模型預測結果進(jìn)行評估。實(shí)驗結果表明,與其他模型的算例結果相比,IBAS-BP模型具有更好的預測性能。將熱電廠(chǎng)負荷預測的結果,作為其廠(chǎng)級負荷優(yōu)化分配系統(廠(chǎng)級AGC)的輸入,通過(guò)負荷優(yōu)化分配系統,得出單臺機組未來(lái)負荷的預測值,最大限度地降低供電煤耗量,提高熱電廠(chǎng)機組運行的經(jīng)濟性。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the thermal power plant load randomness, short-term power load prediction accuracy poor, long calculation time and other problems, the paper proposes a prediction method combined with Improved Beetle Antennae Search(IBAS)algorithm and BP neural network. Model in the history of the thermal power plant active load, season, date type and weather data as input factors, by introducing elite strategy, the optimization of single beetle is extended to group optimization, and the search step length of beetle is improved. So that BP parameters could be effectively optimized within the search range of IBAS, to optimize the weight of BP neural network, enhance its search and optimization ability, and improve the performance and accuracy of the prediction network. Using four standard test functions, the improved model compared with standard BAS algorithm, the introduction of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the precision evaluation index of PSO-BP network, BAS-BP model, IBAS-BP prediction model for evaluation. The experimental results show that compared with other kinds of model calculation results, the IBAS-BP model has better prediction performance.The load forecast result of thermal power plant is taken as the input of the plant level load optimization distribution system (plant level AGC), and the predicted value of the future load of a single unit is obtained through the load optimization distribution system, so as to minimize the coal consumption of power supply and improve the operation economy of thermal power plant units.

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段中興,宋婕菲,溫倩,周孟.基于IBAS-BP算法的熱電廠(chǎng) 負荷預測及工程應用計算機測量與控制[J].,2021,29(10):199-203.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-11
  • 最后修改日期:2021-04-06
  • 錄用日期:2021-04-07
  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2021-11-11
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