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In the past, the statistical energy method and virtual modal synthesis method were used to predict the on-orbit environment, and there was a problem of low prediction accuracy. In order to avoid the disadvantages of the traditional method, a method for predicting the on-orbit environment of a spacecraft based on OTSU binarization was proposed. . The monocular vision optical measurement method is used to measure the position of the spacecraft, a three-round target is designed, and the subpixel processing method is used to obtain the spacecraft pixel layout. The frequency of occurrence of pixel gray value and domain gray value was derived, and the firefly algorithm was introduced to perform OTSU binary image segmentation. A triangular mesh model is used to generate a binary subgraph based on the orbital characteristics of the spacecraft. The width-first search algorithm is called to obtain the initial approximate shortest path. Take the edges in the sub-graph and subdivide them to generate a sub-graph point set. Connect the points in the sub-set into a line to get the shortest path between the pixels. From the results of structural dynamics experiments, it can be seen that the maximum error between the shock response spectrum captured by this method and the actual shock response spectrum obtained is 100 g, while the maximum error of the traditional method is 400 g. High, which provides a reference for the establishment of the actual operating conditions of the spacecraft.