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In this paper, a Russian engine is taken as the research object. According to the fault distribution of the engine, the optimized BP neural network is used to simulate the failure rate. Aiming at the problem that BP neural network may fall into local minimum point, fuzzy parameters are added into the excitation function. Compared with the original network, under the condition of different learning rates, the optimized BP neural network prediction results are more fitting with the actual failure rate, and the prediction results are more accurate. This model has some reference significance for the fault prediction of this type of engine.