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基于動(dòng)態(tài)系數的三次指數平滑算法負載預測
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湖北大學(xué) 計算機與信息工程學(xué)院,湖北大學(xué) 楚才學(xué)院,湖北大學(xué) 計算機與信息工程學(xué)院,烽火通信科技股份有限公司 業(yè)務(wù)與終端產(chǎn)出線(xiàn)

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The load prediction of three exponential smoothing algorithm based on dynamic coefficients.
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    摘要:

    數據中心是企業(yè)信息化的重要組成部分,云計算的核心思想就是把數據中心整成一個(gè)資源池,對資源池進(jìn)行統一的調度與管理。隨著(zhù)虛擬化技術(shù)的發(fā)展,目前對數據中心的資源利用率越來(lái)越高,但是還是存在大量資源浪費的情況,其原因在于當前對數據中心未來(lái)負載預測的算法還存在一定的局限性,如果對未來(lái)負載預測值遠遠大于實(shí)際負載情況,則導致大量的虛擬機資源利用率不高,反之則會(huì )導致虛擬機的資源使用率消耗增大,云平臺中不同物理服務(wù)器之間的負載情況不平衡,一部分物理服務(wù)器負載過(guò)大,導致云計算平臺響應時(shí)間過(guò)長(cháng)。因此云計算平臺選取一個(gè)合適的負載預測算法顯得越發(fā)重要,如何權衡以上問(wèn)題,是云計算里面的一個(gè)重點(diǎn)研究方向。負載預測選取時(shí)間序列預測算法中的三次指數平滑法,在該算法原有的靜態(tài)系數基礎之上,設計了一種動(dòng)態(tài)系數提取方法。通過(guò)等距法把靜態(tài)系數分成若干份進(jìn)行訓練,然后在預測過(guò)程中提取該時(shí)段誤差最小值所對應的系數。在預測結束后,重新計算其誤差,并通過(guò)均值法覆蓋舊誤差。實(shí)驗結果表明,基于自適應三次指數平滑算法其預測誤差明顯小于靜態(tài)系數所預測的誤差,計算復雜度低,具有一定的應用價(jià)值。

    Abstract:

    data center is an important part of enterprise informatization, and the core idea of cloud computing is to integrate data center into a resource pool, and to conduct unified scheduling and management of resource pools. With the development of virtualization technology, the current resource utilization of the data center is higher and higher, but there are still a lot of waste of resources situation, the reason for this is that the current load forecasting algorithm for data center in the future also has certain limitation, if the load forecast for the future is far greater than the actual load, leading to a large number of the virtual machine resources utilization rate is not high, the opposite can lead to increase consumption of resource utilization, the virtual machine between different physical servers in the cloud platform of load imbalance, part of the physical server load is too large, lead to cloud computing platform response time is too long. Therefore, it is more and more important to select a suitable load prediction algorithm for cloud computing platform. How to balance the above problems is a key research direction in cloud computing. Based on the static coefficients of the algorithm, a dynamic coefficient extraction method is designed. By equidistant method, the static coefficients are divided into several parts for training, and then the corresponding coefficients of the minimum error of the time period are extracted in the prediction process. After the prediction is over, the error is recalculated and the old error is covered by means of means. The experimental results show that the prediction error is significantly less than the prediction error of the static coefficient based on the adaptive cubic index smoothing algorithm, and the computational complexity is low, which has certain application value.

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羅辰輝,揭晶方,張偉,沈瓊霞.基于動(dòng)態(tài)系數的三次指數平滑算法負載預測計算機測量與控制[J].,2018,26(10):141-144.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-02-12
  • 最后修改日期:2018-03-26
  • 錄用日期:2018-03-27
  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2018-10-16
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