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Traditional multi-signal model based on the condition of deterministic assumption, lgnore the fact that the system is uncertain. The Bayesain condition probability is introduced into the traditional multi-signal model to express the uncertainty, and then using the Monte Carlo method to simulate the uncertainty problem, and transform it into a single deterministic problem, Finally, the correlation matrix is used to analyze the testability. The availability of the method is validated by program implementation and example analysis, and the initial condition probability can be corrected by parameter learning according to the feedback data.