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基于灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )模型的企業(yè)碳排放峰值預測
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(南京農業(yè)大學(xué) 工學(xué)院,南京 210031)

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於慧琳(1995-),女,江蘇南京人,大學(xué)生,主要從事系統工程方向的研究。[FQ)]

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Grey Neural Network Model for Prediction of Carbon Emissions[JZ)][HS)]
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(College of Engineering,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210031,China)

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    摘要:

    為預測企業(yè)碳排放峰值,幫助企業(yè)設計碳排放的減排路徑,需要對企業(yè)碳排放峰值預測方法進(jìn)行研究;當前采用基于TFDI模型的預測模型對企業(yè)碳排放峰值進(jìn)行預測,預測過(guò)程中無(wú)法全面考慮企業(yè)碳排放影響因素,導致預測企業(yè)碳排放峰值出現誤差;為此,提出一種基于灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )模型的企業(yè)碳排放峰值預測模型;該模型是以灰色模型為基礎,與神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )相融合構建的灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò ),將模型中企業(yè)碳排放原數據進(jìn)行疊加,并用微分方程表示,將VSTE算法作為灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )模型預測的基礎算法,計算企業(yè)碳排放路徑碳排放值,滿(mǎn)足高斯分布隨機函數,以此進(jìn)行企業(yè)碳排放峰值的預測;實(shí)驗結果證明,所提模型可以準確預測企業(yè)碳排放峰值,有效幫助企業(yè)設計碳排放減排路徑。

    Abstract:

    In order to predict the peak of carbon emissions, and to help enterprises design the path of carbon emission reduction, it is necessary to study the prediction method of carbon emissions. At present, the prediction model based on TFDI model is used to predict the peak of carbon emissions, which can not fully consider the influence factors of carbon emissions in the process of prediction, leading to the prediction of the peak value of carbon emissions. Therefore, this paper puts forward a new model of carbon emission prediction based on grey neural network model. The model is based on the grey model, and neural network by combining grey neural network model, the corporate carbon raw data are superimposed, and is represented by differential equations, the VSTE algorithm as the basic algorithm grey neural network prediction model, the calculation of corporate carbon emissions path of carbon emissions, to meet the random Gauss distribution function in order to forecast, corporate carbon emissions to peak. The experimental results show that the proposed model can accurately predict the peak of carbon emissions, and help enterprises to design a path of carbon emission reduction.

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於慧琳,肖銘哲.基于灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )模型的企業(yè)碳排放峰值預測計算機測量與控制[J].,2017,25(12):177-179, 183.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-05-09
  • 最后修改日期:2017-05-26
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2018-01-04
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