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Power transformer is one of the most important equipment in the power system,the hot spot temperature of transformer winding is the main reason for the winding insulation life and the power transformer overloading capability. Traditional thermoelectricity analogy model ignores the temperature difference between transformer devices and its possible mode change of cooling system in the operation, some errors will be caused by these reasons in the practical application. Therefore, based on thermoelectricity analogy model and the GB/T 15164-1994 loading guide method, a soft measurement model is put forward. The model fully considers different transformers’ operation situations and adds auxiliary variables (oil viscosity, the number of cooling fans, etc.) to figure out and optimize the leading variables. The model is proved to be effective by comparing the calculation results of the measured data obtained from a natural oil circulation cooling ONAN transformer. Finally, the simulation results from this model are compared with IEEE guide method results. The comparison proves the model presented is more adequate and has higher accuracy in transient process. 