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基于氣象因素的集中供熱系統熱負荷預測研究
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(大連海事大學(xué) 信息科學(xué)技術(shù)學(xué)院,遼寧 大連 116026)

作者簡(jiǎn)介:

王文標(1982-),男,天津市人,講師,主要從事計算機網(wǎng)絡(luò )方向的研究。 汪思源(1963-),男,安徽合肥人,教授,碩士研究生導師,主要從事過(guò)程控制方向的研究。 [FQ)]

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2014年大連市科技計劃項目(2014E11SF059)。


Research of District Heating System Heat Load Prediction Based on Weather Factors
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(School of Information Science and Technology, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

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    摘要:

    集中供熱系統各子系統的給定值都是由預報熱負荷決定的,提供準確的熱負荷預測是提高供熱質(zhì)量的基礎;傳統熱負荷預測僅考慮室外溫度的影響,并且熱負荷預測模型參數的辨識仍依靠傳統數學(xué)工具,精度不夠高;為了更準確預測,研究了多個(gè)氣象參數對集中供熱系統熱負荷的影響,采用了多元回歸法,利用1stOpt軟件中的LM-UGO算法建立了集中供熱系統熱負荷預測模型;實(shí)驗結果顯示,室外溫度對熱負荷有直接影響,風(fēng)速或日照對室外溫度有直接影響,然后間接影響熱負荷,同時(shí),多元回歸擬合的平方相關(guān)系數均在0.900 0以上,模型訓練、測試的平均絕對百分比誤差均在4.00%以下;應用實(shí)例表明,熱負荷預測模型的訓練與測試均比較合理,這種多元回歸法適用于在熱負荷預測鄰域推廣與使用。

    Abstract:

    The set value of district heating system’s subsystem depends on forecasting heat load, providing accurate heat load prediction is the basis to improve the heating quality. For the traditional heat load prediction, the outdoor temperature was considered as the only one influence factor, the heat load prediction model’s parameters identification depend on traditional mathematical tools, and the model’s accuracy isn’t high. In order to predict the heat load more accurately, the multiple weather factors’ influences on the district heating system heat load were researched in this paper, moreover, the multiple regression method was used in this paper, and then, the district heating system heat load prediction models were established by Levenberg Marquarat-Universal Global Optimization (LM-UGO) algorithm in 1stOpt software. The experimental results shown that the outdoor temperature has a direct influence on the heat load, the wind speed or solar radiation has a direct influence on the outdoor temperature so as to impact the heat load indirectly. The results shown that the multiple regression fitting’s square correlation coefficient were all greater than 0.900 0, model training and testing’s mean absolute percentage error were all less than 4.00%. This application indicated that the training and testing process of the heat load prediction models were reasonable, it proved that this multiple regression method can be promoted into the heat load prediction field.

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引用本文

王文標,蔡麒,汪思源.基于氣象因素的集中供熱系統熱負荷預測研究計算機測量與控制[J].,2016,24(2):22-23.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-08-29
  • 最后修改日期:2015-09-30
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2016-07-27
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