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Failure detection for mobile network is a new research subject. The failure of the mobile phone networks tend to have not more sexual characteristics, internal embodied in news of hysteresis. According to this characteristic, a message delay estimation algorithm is proposed and applied to the mobile phone network failure detection, the principle of the algorithm is presented, and according to the mobile phone network message delay time, into the algorithm to estimate the next message signal to estimate of the time lag, according to the news in the mobile phone network to reach the time interval, substitution algorithm to estimate the next data message may reach the lag intervals. Settings of a signal message arrives at the moment the timer timeout value, the lag time interval will be lower than the timeout value as the failure of the mobile phone network message node, realizes the accurate detection of the mobile phone network failure. Experiment and analysis show that the algorithm estimates the results with the actual phone operation matching degree is more than 85%, has high robustness.