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the fault diagnosis of automobile transmission is more complex, because the traditional diagnostic methods have been unable to meet the complex fault phenomena, this paper proposes an improved adaptive fault diagnosis method based on regression time series model. Methods by using the technology of fault diagnosis based on time series, firstly, the vibration signals are measured under working environment, and then establish the diagnosis time series object mathematical model, the information of distance discriminant analysis method to diagnose the fault type, improve the efficiency of fault diagnosis. Experiment research is carried out in the gearbox of mulberry. Experimental results show that, the algorithm can effectively identify the fault severity of gearbox system, and compared with the traditional fault diagnosis algorithm, the proposed algorithm improves the recognition rate and reduce the computational complexity, has obvious advantages.